Verfügbarkeit: Applied mathematical demography

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Bibliographische Detailangaben
Titel:	Applied mathematical demography
Von:	Nathan Keyfitz ; Hal Caswell
Person:	Keyfitz, Nathan 1913-2010 Verfasser aut Caswell, Hal
Hauptverfassende:	Keyfitz, Nathan 1913-2010 (VerfasserIn), Caswell, Hal (VerfasserIn)
Format:	Buch
Sprache:	Englisch
Veröffentlicht:	New York Springer 2005
Ausgabe:	3. ed.
Schriftenreihe:	Statistics for biology and health
Notation:	MS 4000 MS 4250 QH 253 RB 10543
Schlagwörter:	Demographie - Mathematisches Modell Demographie / Wissenschaftliche Methode / Statistische Methode / Theorie Datenverarbeitung Mathematisches Modell Demography > Mathematical models Matrices Matrices > Data processing Population biology > Mathematical models Demographie Sozialanthropologie Bevölkerungsentwicklung Bibliografie
Medienzugang:	http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=012986402&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA
Beschreibung:	Auch als Internetausgabe
Umfang:	XXIII, 555 S. graph. Darst.
ISBN:	0387225374

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Datensatz im Suchindex

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adam_text	CONTENTS PREFACE TO THE THIRD EDITION VII PREFACE TO THE SECOND EDITION XI PREFACE TO THE FIRST EDITION XIII ACKNOWLEDGMENTS XVII A WORD ABOUT NOTATION XXV 1 INTRODUCTION: POPULATION WITHOUT AGE 1 1.1 DEFINITIONS OF RATE OF INCREASE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 1.2 DOUBLING TIME AND HALF-LIFE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 1.3 ONE-SEX VERSUS TWO-SEX MODELS: DESCENDANTS OF THE PILGRIM FATHERS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 1.4 HOW MANY PEOPLE HAVE LIVED ON THE EARTH? . . . . . . . 11 1.5 A MIXTURE OF POPULATIONS HAVING DIFFERENT RATES OF INCREASE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 1.6 RATE OF INCREASE CHANGING OVER TIME . . . . . . . . . . . 18 1.7 LOGISTIC INCREASE AND EXPLOSION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 1.8 THE STALLED DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION . . . . . . . . . . . 23 1.9 DIFFERENTIAL FERTILITY DUE TO THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 1.10 MATRICES IN DEMOGRAPHY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 XX CONTENTS 2 THE LIFE TABLE 29 2.1 DEFINITION OF LIFE TABLE FUNCTIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 2.2 LIFE TABLES BASED ON DATA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 2.3 FURTHER SMALL CORRECTIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 2.4 PERIOD AND COHORT TABLES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 2.5 FINANCIAL CALCULATIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 2.6 CAUSE-DELETED TABLES AND MULTIPLE DECREMENT . . . . . . 42 2.7 THE LIFE TABLE AS A UNIFYING TECHNIQUE IN DEMOGRAPHY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 3 THE MATRIX MODEL FRAMEWORK 48 3.1 THE LESLIE MATRIX . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 3.2 PROJECTION: THE SIMPLEST FORM OF ANALYSIS . . . . . . . . 51 3.3 THE LESLIE MATRIX AND THE LIFE TABLE . . . . . . . . . . . 55 3.4 ASSUMPTIONS: PROJECTION VERSUS FORECASTING . . . . . . . 62 3.5 STATE VARIABLES AND ALTERNATIVES TO AGE-CLASSIFICATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64 3.6 AGE AS A STATE VARIABLE: WHEN DOES IT FAIL? . . . . . . . 65 3.7 THE LIFE CYCLE GRAPH . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67 3.8 THE MATRIX MODEL . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 4 MORTALITY COMPARISONS; THE MALE-FEMALE RATIO 71 4.1 THE MULTIPLICITY OF INDEX NUMBERS . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 4.2 SHOULD WE INDEX DEATH RATES OR SURVIVORSHIPS? . . . . . 76 4.3 EFFECT ON O E 0 OF CHANGE IN µ ( X ) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78 4.4 EVERYBODY DIES PREMATURELY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88 5 FIXED REGIME OF MORTALITY AND FERTILITY 93 5.1 STABLE THEORY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94 5.2 POPULATION GROWTH ESTIMATED FROM ONE CENSUS . . . . . 97 5.3 MEAN AGE IN THE STABLE POPULATION . . . . . . . . . . . . 103 5.4 RATE OF INCREASE FROM THE FRACTION UNDER 25 . . . . . . . 107 5.5 BIRTH RATE AND RATE OF INCREASE ESTIMATED FOR A STABLE POPULATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109 5.6 SEVERAL WAYS OF USING THE AGE DISTRIBUTION . . . . . . . 111 5.7 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118 5.8 PROMOTION WITHIN ORGANIZATIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121 6 BIRTH AND POPULATION INCREASE FROM THE LIFE TABLE 127 6.1 THE CHARACTERISTIC EQUATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128 6.2 A VARIANT FORM OF THE CHARACTERISTIC EQUATION . . . . . 133 6.3 PERTURBATION ANALYSIS OF THE INTRINSIC RATE . . . . . . . . 135 6.4 ARBITRARY PATTERN OF BIRTH RATE DECLINE . . . . . . . . . 138 6.5 DROP IN BIRTHS REQUIRED TO OFFSET A DROP IN DEATHS . . . 141 6.6 MOMENTS OF DYING AND LIVING POPULATIONS . . . . . . . . 144 CONTENTS XXI 7 BIRTH AND POPULATION INCREASE FROM MATRIX POPULATION MODELS 148 7.1 SOLUTION OF THE PROJECTION EQUATION . . . . . . . . . . . . 148 7.2 THE STRONG ERGODIC THEOREM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155 7.3 TRANSIENT DYNAMICS AND CONVERGENCE . . . . . . . . . . . 165 7.4 COMPUTATION OF EIGENVALUES AND EIGENVECTORS . . . . . . 175 7.5 MATHEMATICAL FORMULATIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176 8 REPRODUCTIVE VALUE FROM THE LIFE TABLE 183 8.1 CONCEPT OF REPRODUCTIVE VALUE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 184 8.2 ULTIMATE EFFECT OF SMALL OUT-MIGRATION OCCURRING IN A GIVEN YEAR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190 8.3 EFFECT OF CONTINUING BIRTH CONTROL AND STERILIZATION . . . 191 8.4 LARGE CHANGE IN REGIME . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 193 8.5 EMIGRATION AS A POLICY APPLIED YEAR AFTER YEAR . . . . . 194 8.6 THE MOMENTUM OF POPULATION GROWTH . . . . . . . . . . 196 8.7 ELIMINATING HEART DISEASE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199 8.8 THE STABLE EQUIVALENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200 8.9 REPRODUCTIVE VALUE AS A CONTRIBUTION TO FUTURE BIRTHS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 206 9 REPRODUCTIVE VALUE FROM MATRIX MODELS 208 9.1 REPRODUCTIVE VALUE AS AN EIGENVECTOR . . . . . . . . . . . 208 9.2 THE STABLE EQUIVALENT POPULATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . 213 10 UNDERSTANDING POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS 216 10.1 ACCOUNTING FOR AGE DISTRIBUTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 217 10.2 MORE WOMEN THAN MEN . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 223 10.3 AGE AT MARRIAGE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 225 10.4 THE FOREIGN-BORN AND INTERNAL MIGRANTS . . . . . . . . . 236 10.5 HUMAN STOCKS AND FLOWS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 238 10.6 THE DEMOGRAPHY OF ORGANIZATIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . 241 11 MARKOV CHAINS FOR INDIVIDUAL LIFE HISTORIES 245 11.1 A = T + F . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 245 11.2 LIFETIME EVENT PROBABILITIES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 251 11.3 AGE-SPECIFIC TRAITS FROM STAGE-SPECIFIC MODELS . . . . . 253 12 PROJECTION AND FORECASTING 268 12.1 UNAVOIDABLE AND IMPOSSIBLE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 268 12.2 THE TECHNIQUE OF PROJECTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 272 12.3 APPLICATIONS OF PROJECTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 278 12.4 THE SEARCH FOR CONSTANCIES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 282 12.5 FEATURES OF FORECASTING AND FORECASTING ERROR . . . . . . 287 12.6 THE COMPONENTS OF FORECASTING ERROR EX ANTE . . . . . 292 XXII CONTENTS 12.7 EX POST EVALUATION OF POINT ESTIMATES . . . . . . . . . . 296 12.8 A DIVISION OF LABOR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 299 12.9 INTERVAL ESTIMATES AS CURRENTLY PROVIDED . . . . . . . . . 301 13 PERTURBATION ANALYSIS OF MATRIX MODELS 303 13.1 EIGENVALUE SENSITIVITY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 305 13.2 ELASTICITY ANALYSIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 317 13.3 SENSITIVITIES OF EIGENVECTORS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 321 13.4 LIFE TABLE RESPONSE EXPERIMENTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . 325 13.5 FIXED DESIGNS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 327 13.6 RANDOM DESIGNS AND VARIANCE DECOMPOSITION . . . . . . 329 13.7 REGRESSION DESIGNS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 332 13.8 PROSPECTIVE AND RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSES . . . . . . . . . . 333 14 SOME TYPES OF INSTABILITY 335 14.1 ABSOLUTE CHANGE IN MORTALITY THE SAME AT ALL AGES . . . 335 14.2 PROPORTIONAL CHANGE IN MORTALITY . . . . . . . . . . . . . 338 14.3 CHANGING BIRTH RATES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 341 14.4 ANNOUNCED PERIOD BIRTH RATE TOO HIGH . . . . . . . . . 343 14.5 BACKWARD POPULATION PROJECTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 348 14.6 THE TIME TO STABILITY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 352 14.7 RETIREMENT PENSIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 358 14.8 THE DEMOGRAPHY OF EDUCATIONAL ORGANIZATION . . . . . . 361 14.9 TWO LEVELS OF STUDENTS AND TEACHERS . . . . . . . . . . . 363 14.10 MOBILITY IN AN UNSTABLE POPULATION . . . . . . . . . . . . 365 14.11 THE EASTERLIN EFFECT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 366 15 THE DEMOGRAPHIC THEORY OF KINSHIP 370 15.1 PROBABILITY OF LIVING ANCESTORS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 372 15.2 DESCENDANTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 379 15.3 SISTERS AND AUNTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 381 15.4 MEAN AND VARIANCE OF AGES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 386 15.5 CHANGING RATES OF BIRTH AND DEATH . . . . . . . . . . . . 387 15.6 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 388 15.7 DERIVING RATES FROM GENEALOGIES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 394 15.8 INCEST TABOO AND RATE OF INCREASE . . . . . . . . . . . . . 396 15.9 BIAS IMPOSED BY AGE DIFFERENCE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 397 16 MICRODEMOGRAPHY 399 16.1 BIRTHS AVERTED BY CONTRACEPTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . 399 16.2 MEASUREMENT OF FECUNDITY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 410 16.3 THREE-CHILD FAMILIES CONSTITUTE A POPULATION EXPLOSION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 425 16.4 A FAMILY-BUILDING TO AVOID EXTINCTION . . . . . . . . . . 427 16.5 SEX PREFERENCE AND THE BIRTH RATE . . . . . . . . . . . . . 430 CONTENTS XXIII 16.6 PARENTAL CONTROL OVER SEX OF CHILDREN . . . . . . . . . . . 433 16.7 MEAN FAMILY SIZE FROM ORDER-OF-BIRTH DISTRIBUTION . . . 439 16.8 PARITY PROGRESSION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 440 16.9 LOWER MORTALITY AND INCREASE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 441 17 THE MULTI-STATE MODEL 444 17.1 SINGLE DECREMENT AND INCREMENT-DECREMENT . . . . . . . 446 17.2 THE KOLMOGOROV EQUATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 449 17.3 EXPECTED TIME IN THE SEVERAL STATES . . . . . . . . . . . 452 17.4 PROJECTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 455 17.5 TRANSITION VERSUS INSTANTANEOUS PROBABILITY OF MOVING . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 456 17.6 STABLE POPULATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 459 18 FAMILY DEMOGRAPHY 461 18.1 DEFINITIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 462 18.2 KINSHIP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 464 18.3 THE LIFE CYCLE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 469 18.4 HOUSEHOLD SIZE DISTRIBUTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 471 18.5 ECONOMIC, POLITICAL, AND BIOLOGICAL THEORY . . . . . . . . 474 18.6 FAMILY POLICY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 475 19 HETEROGENEITY AND SELECTION IN POPULATION ANALYSIS 477 19.1 CONDITIONING AND THE INTERPRETATION OF STATISTICAL DATA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 479 19.2 HETEROGENEITY AND SELECTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 481 19.3 APPLICATION TO MORTALITY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 482 19.4 MODELLING HETEROGENEITY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 486 19.5 EXPERIMENTATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 492 20 EPILOGUE: HOW DO WE KNOW THE FACTS OF DEMOGRAPHY? 494 20.1 PROPORTIONS OF OLD PEOPLE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 496 20.2 PROMOTION IN ORGANIZATIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 501 20.3 NO MODEL, NO UNDERSTANDING . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 503 20.4 TOO MANY MODELS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 504 20.5 DEVELOPMENT AND POPULATION INCREASE . . . . . . . . . . . 504 20.6 HOW NATURE COVERS HER TRACKS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 508 20.7 THE PSYCHOLOGY OF RESEARCH . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 510 BIBLIOGRAPHY 513 INDEX 551
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genre	1\p (DE-588)4006432-3 Bibliografie gnd-content
genre_facet	Bibliografie
id	DE-604.BV019657924
illustrated	Illustrated
indexdate	2024-12-20T12:02:51Z
institution	BVB
isbn	0387225374
language	English
oai_aleph_id	oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-012986402
oclc_num	249651645
open_access_boolean
owner	DE-859 DE-473 DE-BY-UBG DE-19 DE-BY-UBM DE-634
owner_facet	DE-859 DE-473 DE-BY-UBG DE-19 DE-BY-UBM DE-634
physical	XXIII, 555 S. graph. Darst.
publishDate	2005
publishDateSearch	2005
publishDateSort	2005
publisher	Springer
record_format	marc
series2	Statistics for biology and health
spellingShingle	Keyfitz, Nathan 1913-2010 Caswell, Hal Applied mathematical demography Demographie - Mathematisches Modell Demographie / Wissenschaftliche Methode / Statistische Methode / Theorie Datenverarbeitung Mathematisches Modell Demography Mathematical models Matrices Matrices Data processing Population biology Mathematical models Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 gnd Demographie (DE-588)4011412-0 gnd Sozialanthropologie (DE-588)4129436-1 gnd Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 gnd
subject_GND	(DE-588)4114528-8 (DE-588)4011412-0 (DE-588)4129436-1 (DE-588)4006292-2 (DE-588)4006432-3
title	Applied mathematical demography
title_auth	Applied mathematical demography
title_exact_search	Applied mathematical demography
title_full	Applied mathematical demography Nathan Keyfitz ; Hal Caswell
title_fullStr	Applied mathematical demography Nathan Keyfitz ; Hal Caswell
title_full_unstemmed	Applied mathematical demography Nathan Keyfitz ; Hal Caswell
title_short	Applied mathematical demography
title_sort	applied mathematical demography
topic	Demographie - Mathematisches Modell Demographie / Wissenschaftliche Methode / Statistische Methode / Theorie Datenverarbeitung Mathematisches Modell Demography Mathematical models Matrices Matrices Data processing Population biology Mathematical models Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 gnd Demographie (DE-588)4011412-0 gnd Sozialanthropologie (DE-588)4129436-1 gnd Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 gnd
topic_facet	Demographie - Mathematisches Modell Demographie / Wissenschaftliche Methode / Statistische Methode / Theorie Datenverarbeitung Mathematisches Modell Demography Mathematical models Matrices Matrices Data processing Population biology Mathematical models Demographie Sozialanthropologie Bevölkerungsentwicklung Bibliografie
url	http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=012986402&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA
work_keys_str_mv	AT keyfitznathan appliedmathematicaldemography AT caswellhal appliedmathematicaldemography

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