Gespeichert in:
| Titel: | Radical uncertainty decision-making beyond the numbers |
|---|---|
| Von: |
John Kay, Mervyn King
|
| Person: |
Kay, John
1948- Verfasser aut King, Mervyn |
| Hauptverfassende: | , |
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | Englisch |
| Veröffentlicht: |
New York, NY
W.W. Norton & Company
2021
|
| Notation: | QC 020 |
| Schlagwörter: | |
| Medienzugang: | https://www.gbv.de/dms/mpib-toc/1681119595.pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=032509224&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| Abstract: | "In a changing world, forecasts and numbers usually represent bogus quantification. Kay and King tell us how to think smarter. Radical uncertainty changes the way we should think about decision-making. For over half a century economics has assumed that people behave rationally by optimizing among well-defined choices. Behavioral economics questioned how far people are rational, pointing to the cognitive biases that seem to describe actual behavior. Radical Uncertainty is a bold, paradigm-shifting book that takes us past standard and behavioral economics, completely shifting our understanding of the role economics can play in decision-making. We can never have the information required to optimize. But the failure to come to terms with this reality has led us to build our largest financial organizations, develop major policy decisions, and create business structures on shifting sands-the false belief that the numbers provided by economic models give us the answer. They don't. The best managers in the public and private sectors rely on narratives, not numbers"-- |
| Umfang: | xxxvi, 530 Seiten Illustrationen |
| ISBN: | 9780393541984 9781324004776 |
Internformat
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| 520 | 3 | |a "In a changing world, forecasts and numbers usually represent bogus quantification. Kay and King tell us how to think smarter. Radical uncertainty changes the way we should think about decision-making. For over half a century economics has assumed that people behave rationally by optimizing among well-defined choices. Behavioral economics questioned how far people are rational, pointing to the cognitive biases that seem to describe actual behavior. Radical Uncertainty is a bold, paradigm-shifting book that takes us past standard and behavioral economics, completely shifting our understanding of the role economics can play in decision-making. We can never have the information required to optimize. But the failure to come to terms with this reality has led us to build our largest financial organizations, develop major policy decisions, and create business structures on shifting sands-the false belief that the numbers provided by economic models give us the answer. They don't. The best managers in the public and private sectors rely on narratives, not numbers"-- | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1819368571142144000 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | CONTENTS
Acknowledgements
Preface to the Paperback Edition
Preface
Part I
Introduction: The Nature of Uncertainty
1 The Unknowable Future
2 Puzzles and Mysteries
3 Radical Uncertainty is Everywhere
Part II
The Lure of Probabilities
4 Thinking with Probabilities
5 A Forgotten Dispute
6 Ambiguity and Vagueness
7 Probability and Optimisation
Part III
Making Sense of Uncertainty
8 Rationality in a Large World
9 Evolution and Decision-Making
xiil
xV
xxxii
10 The Narrative Paradigm
11 Uncertainty, Probability and the Law
12 Good and Bad Narratives
13 Telling Stories Through Numbers
14 Telling Stories Through Models
15 Rationality and Communication
16 Challenging Narratives
Part IV
Economics and Uncertainty
17 The World of Finance
18 Radical Uncertainty, Insurance and
Investment
19 (Mis)Understanding Macroeconomics
20 The Use and Misuse of Models
Part V
Living with Uncertainty
21 Practical Knowledge
22 Adapting to Radical Uncertainty
23 Embracing Uncertainty
Appendix: Axioms of Choice under
Uncertainty
Notes
Bibliography
Further Reading
Index
|
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| dewey-full | 658.4/03 |
| dewey-hundreds | 600 - Technology (Applied sciences) |
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| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
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| id | DE-604.BV047102885 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-12-20T19:09:46Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9780393541984 9781324004776 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-032509224 |
| oclc_num | 1277023585 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-634 DE-B170 |
| owner_facet | DE-634 DE-B170 |
| physical | xxxvi, 530 Seiten Illustrationen |
| publishDate | 2021 |
| publishDateSearch | 2021 |
| publishDateSort | 2021 |
| publisher | W.W. Norton & Company |
| record_format | marc |
| spellingShingle | Kay, John 1948- King, Mervyn 1948- Radical uncertainty decision-making beyond the numbers Wirtschaftswissenschaften (DE-588)4066528-8 gnd Unsicherheit (DE-588)4186957-6 gnd Entscheidungsfindung (DE-588)4113446-1 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4066528-8 (DE-588)4186957-6 (DE-588)4113446-1 |
| title | Radical uncertainty decision-making beyond the numbers |
| title_auth | Radical uncertainty decision-making beyond the numbers |
| title_exact_search | Radical uncertainty decision-making beyond the numbers |
| title_full | Radical uncertainty decision-making beyond the numbers John Kay, Mervyn King |
| title_fullStr | Radical uncertainty decision-making beyond the numbers John Kay, Mervyn King |
| title_full_unstemmed | Radical uncertainty decision-making beyond the numbers John Kay, Mervyn King |
| title_short | Radical uncertainty |
| title_sort | radical uncertainty decision making beyond the numbers |
| title_sub | decision-making beyond the numbers |
| topic | Wirtschaftswissenschaften (DE-588)4066528-8 gnd Unsicherheit (DE-588)4186957-6 gnd Entscheidungsfindung (DE-588)4113446-1 gnd |
| topic_facet | Wirtschaftswissenschaften Unsicherheit Entscheidungsfindung |
| url | https://www.gbv.de/dms/mpib-toc/1681119595.pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=032509224&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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