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Titel:A Simple Fiscal Stress Testing Model
Case Studies of Austrian, Czech and German Economies
Weiterer Titel:Un modèle de simulation simple de crise budgétaire - études de cas des économies autrichienne, allemande et tchèque
Von: Ondra Kamenik ... [et al] = Un modèle de simulation simple de crise budgétaire - études de cas des économies autrichienne, allemande et tchèque / Ondra Kamenik ... [et al]
Person: Kamenik, Ondra
Verfasser
aut
Tuma, Zdenek
Vavra, David
Smidova, Zuzana
Hauptverfasser: Kamenik, Ondra (VerfasserIn)
Weitere beteiligte Personen: Tuma, Zdenek (MitwirkendeR), Vavra, David (MitwirkendeR), Smidova, Zuzana (MitwirkendeR)
Format: Elektronisch E-Book
Sprache:Englisch
Veröffentlicht: Paris OECD Publishing 2013
Schriftenreihe:OECD Economics Department Working Papers
Schlagwörter:
Medienzugang:https://doi.org/10.1787/5k43nxm8hfvf-en
Zusammenfassung:This paper develops a simple model-based framework for stress testing fiscal consolidation strategies under different scenarios of future shocks. A baseline scenario assuming a gradual debt consolidation is presented and by assuming different future developments (e.g. lower potential growth) and/or model specification in terms of a fiscal rule confidence bands around the baseline are obtained. Trade-offs between costs and benefits are evaluated, in terms of cumulative output loss and primary surpluses, as well as political difficulty of fiscal strategies and risk of failed consolidation. The model is applied to Austria, Czech Republic and Germany. This working paper relates to the 2013 OECD Economic Surveys of Austria, Czech Republic and Germany. (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys)
Umfang:1 Online-Ressource (61 Seiten) 21 x 29.7cm
DOI:10.1787/5k43nxm8hfvf-en